Could the May local elections deliver a seismic shift in the make-up of Southwark Council?
For the last 15 years Labour’s grip on the borough has grown stronger with each election, with the party winning large majorities in 2010, 2014 and 2018 and culminating in 2022’s landslide victory, which saw it take 52 seats out of 63. But this week we took a deep dive into the possible electoral fortunes of the Southwark Green Party, which has seen membership numbers quadruple in the last year.
The party recently gained three councillors, all of whom moved across from Southwark Labour, with the latest defection occurring just last week.
All things considered, it is almost certain that the Greens will be a more significant presence in the next council – although the bar is low, given the party failed to win any seats at all in 2022.
In our interview with Claire Sheppard, the two-time Green parliamentary candidate for Peckham, we asked whether it was the party’s goal to take control of the council. Of course, such an outcome is virtually unthinkable when its performance just four years ago is considered, and unsurprisingly Sheppard demurred: but the fact we even asked the question is a sign of how far things have moved on since 2022.
The Greens’ closest result back then was in Queen’s Road and Nunhead ward where Sheppard herself stood. She managed to get 12 per cent of votes cast (1551), but still some 500 short of the number needed to topple the closest Labour candidate.
Labour appear to be nervous of the Green threat in Southwark; when we asked the London Labour Party to comment on Sheppard’s claims that Labour probably ‘wouldn’t let’ the local party form a coalition with the Greens, we speedily received a strongly-worded response claiming they ‘weren’t in the business of doing deals’ and attacking the party’s newest recruits, whom they accused of ‘falling below the standards the Labour Party sets for its representatives’ (Sheppard replied these were ‘cheap shots’ and praised the calibre of the three councillors).
The Lib Dems will also be hoping to capitalise on Labour’s unpopularity by increasing their seats from the 11 they won last time. Faced with the gathering momentum of the Greens, they are already seeking to frame the next election as a two-horse fight between themselves and Labour for control of the council.
Despite the fragmentation which we’re beginning to see, a Labour majority is still the most likely outcome given the overwhelming support the party received in 2022, albeit a smaller one.
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This could be welcome: the presence of more councillors representing a range of political parties will surely be a boon for local democracy?
With Labour in charge of the council, Mayoralty and the government, politics in the capital can sometimes feel stale, with each tier of government seemingly reluctant to criticise one another, nervous of ruffling feathers.
The other big London-wide political news this week was Reform’s early announcement of their candidate for Mayor, the Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham, even though the next contest won’t be until 2028.
It’s unlikely that Reform will make much of an impact in Southwark and it doesn’t seem like the party has made an effort to organise itself locally; a few months ago we did try to reach out to the local Reform representative but never heard anything back.
Where they will do better is in some outer London boroughs like Bromley, which already has a Reform councillor, as well as places like Bexley and Barking and Dagenham. Both locally and London-wide, politics in years to come looks set for a shake-up.
