Examining a strange contradiction in Millwall’s dominant press

"THEY negate passes that you want to make...their high pressure is really good."

"Especially in the first half, we felt that. We didn't find the free player to start the attack."

Those quotes, from Coventry City head coach Frank Lampard and Swansea City boss Vitor Manos, came after both had watched Millwall swarm their sides for 90 minutes.

You would expect to hear similar sentiments from the other 21 Championship head coaches as well.

Over the past year, as Alex Neil has stamped his mark on the Lions, they have become militantly organised and aggressive out of possession, looking to turn the ball over in high-value areas of the pitch and take advantage of a disorganised defence in transition.

A quick scan of the pressing statistics shows how well that has been implemented. Millwall lead the league in high turnovers ( Defined as the number of possessions that start in open play and begin 40 metres or less from the opponent’s goal) with 240, nearly double the number of the teams with the fewest. They are also fifth in Passes Allowed per Defensive Action (Defined as the number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team’s own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third).

It is a fundamental block of Neil's all-action style of play, which demands that his teams are the protagonists of most matches rather than passive observers.

By and large, it has been working very well, as the quotes above outlined. Teams know what they are in for, but are still often unsettled by the Lions' intensity and ferocity.

There is, however, something strange about Millwall's pressing stats.

For a side that averages 7.5 high turnovers per game, they do not convert them into chances as much as you would expect. On average, Millwall generate just one shot per game from high turnovers and rank seventh lowest in the division for the percentage that end in an attempt (13.75 per cent).

The contrast grows even deeper when you look at end product. Only two goals have come from high turnovers (a quarter of Ipswich Town's return), and Millwall sit alongside sides who press less and occupy far less comfortable positions in the table.

Are the Lions perhaps victims of their own success?

Neil gave his thoughts on the conundrum.

"It's something we're consistently wrestling with," Neil said.

"So I'll give you an example. Against Charlton, in the first half, we were, by design, a little bit more passive. I don't think our fans liked it. I didn't particularly like it because it's not my style. But the problem you've got is sometimes when your press is too clean, you make teams just work the ball off the front, which means there's nothing to press.

"Sheffield Wednesday did that at the weekend. They didn't play the ball out from the back. They did it once, played down the left-hand side, clipped it. Tristan [Crama] won the header, and Josh Coburn got in the box, turned and put it across the box and nearly scored. After that, they didn't play another ball out from the back, everything got turned forward.

"It's difficult in the fact that you want to be a good pressing team, but equally, it's making sure you find the balance, because if you're that good at pressing, what happens is their backline doesn't come out of the structure, which means you always need to break them down. Because when teams work up the pitch and open the pitch up and lose it, then there's space in behind them.

"So it's just about making sure we get the balance between carrying a threat, getting the press right if we need it, or being a little bit looser. There have been times this year where I've consciously made the press a little bit loose, and I know the lads are sort of looking at me, thinking, 'Please fix this for us.' But at times I don't because I think it's more beneficial for us in the fact that it leaves more space for us."

That explanation clarifies what initially appear to be contradictory numbers. When Millwall press too cleanly, opponents simply retreat into their structure and are well prepared to defend if the ball gets turned over.

By loosening the press slightly, the Lions can tempt teams forward, creating greater space for their dangerous wide players once possession is regained closer to their own goal.

Alternatively, some sides abandon build-up altogether and go long - a scenario that usually favours Millwall, given the size of their back four and how adept their midfield are at picking up second balls (Watford away was a great example of the Lions dominating a side that kicked it long).

The balance is clearly working. As Neil said on the weekend, they are an effective team, and it has propelled them to third by mid-February.

The high-possession sides such as Ipswich, Middlesbrough and Birmingham City are still to come, and in those fixtures Millwall’s press may yet prove decisive.