Crunching Millwall&#8217;s numbers: No wins with no clean sheet; no comeback victories; third-worst in leads thrown away &#8211;

SINCE their last win, against Bristol City on New Year’s Day, Millwall have dropped nine points from winning positions in their last five games.

At the weekend, Joe Edwards’ side went 1-0 up at Coventry City before the hosts scored twice in four minutes in the second half to take victory.

The Lions are one of only three sides in the Championship this season that have won fewer than half the games they have taken the lead in. (The other two are Huddersfield Town and Rotherham United.)

If Millwall even had an average return of wins after going in front their relegation worries wouldn’t be as acute as they are.

It means they are currently a side that when they fall behind they won’t go on to win the game; and even when they go in front only two other teams have thrown away more wins.

The last time Millwall won a game after going behind was when they defeated West Bromwich Albion 2-1 at The Den in October 2022.

They are also a side that doesn’t win when they don’t keep a clean sheet. Their eight wins have all been achieved with clean sheets.

We’ve written here before about their difficulties in front of goal this season. The Lions have conceded only one goal in nine separate games this season but haven’t won any of them.

It puts a lot of pressure on the defence. Millwall have been renowned for building on a solid defence, and despite their struggles this season only seven teams have conceded fewer than them, none in the bottom half of the table.

Managers often talk about “getting back to basics” when their team is on a poor run. David Livermore recently told NewsAtDen that after the difficult start to 2015-16, Neil Harris decided to rein things in. Instead of pressing high up the pitch, the team would sit deeper and counter attack. Essentially, get back to basics.

Edwards said last week, “we need to start picking up results”. The most pragmatic way to do that is to cut down on the number of goals conceded. That’s because Millwall aren’t suddenly going to start out-scoring opponents. It’s much easier to cut out mistakes than to find new ways to score goals. Especially when there isn’t much time between games to work on attacking patterns.

But it’s easier said than done, isn’t it? It’s simple to look back on goals and identify what went wrong. But what lessons can the Lions take into their remaining games?

We looked at some of the goals the Lions have conceded over the last five games to come up with a plan going forward. What not to do if the situations occur again. And they will, they’re not one-off circumstances. There will be similar scenarios that these lessons can be applied to.

The first is Middlesbrough’s equalising goal at The Den on January 13. Goalkeeper Tom Glover has the ball at his feet. He wants to play out and waits for his chance. He plays a simple pass forward to Sam Greenwood (29) who is in far too much space, turns and runs forward. It’s Greenwood who gets on the return pass to square for Lukas Engel for a simple tap-in.

Lesson : Know when to drop off rather than high-press. If you can’t go man-to-man on the oppositions midfield, drop off in a unit into a mid-block.

It was 1-1 at half-time before Millwall conceded a terrible goal in the 58th minute. Centre-backs Wes Harding and Jake Cooper (underlined) are so far ahead of Joe Bryan (top-left of the image). Or Bryan is so far behind his genre-backs, whichever way you look at it. It’s a non-existent defensive line and a recipe for disaster.

That’s what happens, as Bryan heads inside and Isaiah Jones has a clear run through before he fires past Matija Sarkic.

Lesson : Communication. Who is calling offside? In this case Bryan can see across the whole line, so should step up and call it. A goal like this should not be conceded at this level.

Boro scored their third in the 95th minute. The Lions were taking risks on the ball trying to get something from the game and lost it in midfield before Boro rapidly transitioned forward and Marcus Forss lashed home.

Lesson : Millwall aren't Manchester City or Liverpool who can keep playing in their default styles even if it's in the fifth minute of stoppage-time. They have the quality to play high-stakes and high-risk passes and keep possession while progressing forward. If the Lions find themselves in the same situation, they should hit it long and have players around where the ball breaks. Even if they lose possession in those areas, the opposition are further from goal than Boro were when they broke for their third.

Millwall next travelled to Queens Park Rangers and were 1-0 down at Loftus Road in the 27th minute.

It was a simple goal from the hosts’ point of view as the ball was shifted out to Chris Willock on the right. He twisted and turned inside Bryan before crossing to the back post where Ilias Chair bundled in.

The attacking team always wants to get their winger into a one-on-one situation with a full-back or wing-back. The defending team has to immediately recognise the danger. But in this instance Zian Flemming (10) doesn’t go to help Bryan. You can see what he’s concerned with, that Willock will play a ball to the QPR player just inside the box. Instead, Willock creates just enough space to get his cross in.

Lesson : Stop the first domino falling.

What’s the best way to stop conceding goals from crosses? Stop the cross. You can understand Flemming, but his first concern has to be doubling up with Bryan. Then a defender or midfielder takes responsibility for the next QPR player closest to the ball. A way to look at it from a player’s perspective is where is the danger likely to come from first? In this case it’s, first, the cross going in, second, the player potentially free in the box, and so on. Solve the first problem first. Do that and those potential issues further away from where the ball is are less likely to materialise.

QPR's second goal five minutes from time came in not too dissimilar circumstances where Chair is one-on-one. He is eventually doubled up on but that leaves the next nearest QPR man, Jack Colback, free. His shot is spilled and Sinclair Armstrong taps in. Again, solve the first problem, be aware of the next and take action to cut down on the probability of a shot on your goal.

Millwall conceded in the fifth minute at Hull City, albeit to one of the most dangerous attackers in the division. But the Lions only had themselves to blame. They tried to play out rom the back early in the game when the hosts were full of energy to press. Even then, there is the opportunity for Harding, on the ball, to play it out to the left where Cooper is in space. Japhet Tanganga (6) is pointing Harding in Cooper’s direction. But Harding plays a short pass into Casper De Norre’s feet, the Lions lose it, and Jaden Philogene finishes after Anass Zaroury fierce drive had come back off the crossbar.

Lesson : The simplest option is often the best. When teams build from the back, they are trying to draw opponents on to them to exploit space elsewhere. The Lions have already achieved that to a degree here, and Harding should have gone wide to Cooper. This is how Edwards wants his side to eventually play, but they are not good enough to do it yet, they haven't had enough time to perfect it. It goes back to the pragmatism we mentioned earlier in the article. Sense the imminent danger, and take simplest option.

There will always be new problems to solve in every game, even if they are usually versions that players have faced many times before. But a full-back will always need help defending one-on-one with a winger. A defensive line should never be as broken as what we saw above. A central midfielder should never be left in that much space to turn and run into, as Greenwood was.

Millwall need to eradicate these defensive errors, and fast. That could, and probably will, be the difference between staying safely away from the bottom three and a relegation fight.