Bermondsey MP Neil Coyle and Southwark Lib Dems have been jostling over figures relating to the precise number of people in the borough likely to be impacted by the government’s planned cuts to disability benefits.
Much more than a narrow, technical dispute, their competing claims shed light on the fundamental ambiguity surrounding Britain’s hopelessly baffling benefits system – the complexity of which ultimately penalises the most vulnerable in society.
Scores of MPs have resolved to vote against the benefit cuts – so despite assurances from Coyle that “real gains” exist in the package of measures announced in March, it’s unlikely to be all sunlit uplands that lie ahead.
Put simply, the government wants to make it more difficult to qualify for the lowest rung of personal independence payments, which are given to people who need support with day-to-day tasks such as getting dressed and eating.
The government also wants to slash the component of universal credit given to those who are out of work for long-term sickness, in a bid to coax more people back into the workforce. The government’s own impact assessment warned the changes could push an extra 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, into poverty.
Action is clearly needed on welfare – Britain’s spending on out-of-work payments to sick and disabled people is expected to hit £70bn by the end of the decade, with analysts warning that by 2030, one in every four pounds of income tax will be spent on sickness benefits.
But is pulling the rug out from under the disabled and very sick really the answer?
Obtaining a proper understanding of Britain’s labyrinthine benefits system would require several years of painstaking study, and gaining clarity on the implications of the cuts for ordinary people is made even more challenging when only one in five of our local MPs will tell us how they plan on voting.
One upside is that, given the current trajectory of national politics, the entire discussion could soon prove to be academic anyway, with Sir Keir Starmer rapidly abandoning pledges as he frantically attempts to fend off the challenge from Reform UK, following Labour’s poor performance in last month’s local elections.
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Days after Nigel Farage pledged to restore winter fuel payments and scrap the two-child benefit cap, the government said it would be reinstating the fuel allowance for elderly pensioners.
Ministers have also hinted that the two-child benefit cap, which limits parents from claiming tax credits and universal credit payments for more than two children, and which the government previously refused to remove, could also be abandoned.
A vote on the welfare cuts is expected in the coming weeks, and given the size of the government’s majority, the measures are likely to pass – but given the current pace of national politics, it would be foolish to take too much for granted.
