Millwall Analysis: The reasons for optimism as Lions on verge of securing play-off spot

FOR the first time this season, Millwall are potentially one game away from securing their play-off place.

If Alex Neil’s side beat Queens Park Rangers in the early kick-off at The Den on Saturday, they will have 76 points. If Wrexham fail to beat Stoke City at home in their later game, the Lions will have guaranteed a top-six finish, at least, in the second tier for the first time since 2022 with three games left.

There is still a lot to play for even then. If Ipswich win at Portsmouth on Tuesday night they will go five points clear of the Lions with a game in hand (at fifth-placed Southampton) in the race for automatic promotion. The Tractor Boys are strong favourites to finish second and bounce back to the Premier League at the first attempt.

If second is out of reach, Millwall’s focus will be on securing third or fourth, thereby securing a second leg at The Den in the play-off semi-final.

Millwall fans can confidently start clearing their calendars for May 8 and 9 and may 11 and 12, if they have’n’t already. Even if it doesn’t mathematically happen for the Lions this weekend, it’s only a matter of time.

But how confident can Lions supporters be going into the play-offs?

Millwall come through brutal schedule

It was a schedule that lends credence to some fans’ theories that the authorities don’t want Millwall to go up. We would never suggest that, of course, but if you were designing kick-off times to hinder them you couldn’t have done a better job.

None of the Lions’ last eight games of the regular league season will have been played at 3pm on Saturday. Over Easter weekend, they won 2-1 at top-two rivals Middlesbrough and then faced an early kick-off just three days later against Norwich City, who were second in the division’s form guide. Chairman James Berylson put his hand in his pocket to get the squad and staff back to London on a flight rather than have to endure a seven-hour coach journey, but the side looked flat against the Canaries and lost 2-1.

Then they had another game a day earlier than their rivals, another return to London in the early hours.

Despite their schedule, the Lions are fifth in the form table over the last ten games. They had one other defeat in that run, 2-1 at home to Blackburn Rovers when the referee turned the game by wrongly sending off Zak Sturge. One defeat in their last eight games when they have had eleven men on the pitch. Given their injuries and all those kick-off changes, that speaks to serious resilience in the squad.

The positive about the Baggies game being brought forward is that the players woke up Saturday morning and could take the full weekend to relax, with Middlesbrough losing a real bonus. That kind of psychological boost can’t be overestimated. The Lions dug in to earn a crucial point; Boro were on their way to dropping two points before it become three in the 97th minute against relegation-threatened Portsmouth at home.

The Lions squad’s WhatsApp group was no doubt lit up by that.

They will also have had eight days to refresh and prepare for a London derby against Queens Park Rangers at a sold-out Den. They will be ready to burst out of the dressing room as kick-off approaches.

Set-piece strength

Millwall have scored 22 set-piece goals this season, the third-most in the Championship behind Coventry City (25) and Southampton (24).

The Lions commit the most fouls per games (13.2) but they are confident in their ability to defend set-pieces. They have the third-best record in the division, having conceded nine, one more than Bristol City and three more than Norwich. Millwall don’t have an issue giving away fouls to prevent chances in open play. They have also been clever about it. They haven’t been hit by a raft of suspensions this season. Tristan Crama tiptoed through a handful of games on nine bookings to avoid a two-game ban had he picked up another by game 37. Sturge was on eight bookings.

The next threshold is fifteen bookings, which would mean a three-game ban, but no player is near that.

Neil’s side top the table of accurate crosses. Millwall drew a bank for the first time since New Year’s Day, their 0-0 draw against Southampton in St Mary’s. Josh Coburn will almost certainly have had a few restless nights after his miss in the first half. For such a good finisher, it was a surprise when he side-footed a volley well wide from right in front of goal. It was another accurate cross that should have been tucked home.

Coburn and Mihailo Ivanovic have both scored nine goals in all competitions this season, eight of the former’s and five of the latter’s coming the year. Ivanovic hit the crossbar against the Baggies. They are getting chances and have shown they can take them. Coburn will shrug off his miss.

Millwall could have another favour top two taking them into the top flight.

Patterson shows play-off winning class

There might have been some people questioning the decision to drop Max Crocombe when Anthony Patterson conceded three goals on his debut against Portsmouth. But Patterson has shown why Neil signed him on loan from Sunderland, whom he helped to the Premier League through the play-offs last season.

Millwall wouldn’t have earned that crucial point - the one that gives them that top-six chance this weekend - had Patterson not made a point-blank save late on to deny former Lions midfielder Jayson Molumby.

Tired legs had let the Baggies in for that late chance but Patterson sprung off his and his line and then diverted Molumby’s effort away.

Patterson had already shown his ability with some stunning saves so far. Having a goalkeeper with that in his locker and with his experience of last year could prove crucial, as it did for the Black Cats in the final against Sheffield United.

Managers often say, ‘if you don’t score, at least make sure you don’t concede and get a point’. Patterson helped ensure that.

How concerning are tired legs?

Neil was asked that by NewsAtDen at The Hawthorns, specifically regarding the recent run.

“You could see that with the players tonight, I’ve had to take off Zak Sturge. I’ve had to take off Josh Coburn,” Neil said. “The reason is the lads are taking cramp, their legs are done. They haven’t got anything left in them. It’s frustrating.”

A cup run is always nice but who now looks back with regret at the 5-1 defeat to Burnley at Turf Moor in the third round of the FA Cup in January? Millwall have needed all the time between games they could get. Sure, Southampton fans are happy, but it remains to be seen - and hoped by those of us on the Millwall divide - if it takes its toll.

Players have had enforced ‘rests’. Billy Mitchell is currently out but his injury is not thought to be serious. Casper De Norre missed the month of March. He is gaining fitness and should be fresh. Coburn has spent time out this season. In other words, all of the injuries the Lions have had to endure this season could provide the benefit that a big chunk of players aren’t carrying 46 games in their legs heading into the play-offs.

Millwall have these eight days before QPR and then six or seven days before the first leg of the play-off semi-final. Tiredness can’t really be cited as an issue then. Especially as the adrenaline will really kick in.

There have been some grumblings about missed opportunities recently. I’m in a WhatsApp group with Millwall fans and one of them was furious with the performance at The Hawthorns. It led me to writing incredulously: ‘They’re second with four games left!’ There is no pleasing some supporters but that’s a story as old as time itself.